As the 2024 presidential election approaches, first-time homebuyers are hitting the brakes, waiting to see how the political winds blow before jumping on the market.
A new survey from Redfin finds that nearly a quarter of potential buyers — 23% — are delaying their purchase until after the election, hoping the outcome will bring policies that ease their path to homeownership.
The uncertainty of the election is clearly weighing on the minds of many young buyers, especially as housing affordability remains a top concern. Among the respondents, a significant part is closely following the housing proposals of the main candidates.
Trump supporters are looking to see how he will address affordable housing, given the former president’s focus on deregulation and economic growth, which could lead to new housing developments and more opportunities for homeownership.
Nearly 16% are keen to see how Trump’s potential affordable housing policies could shape the market if he is returned to office.
For some, the election result could be a game changer.
On the other hand, Kamala Harris’ proposal, which includes $25,000 in down payment assistance for first-time buyers, has attracted the attention of more than 26% of respondents.
But economic critics say her plan will cost a penny – up to $500 billion – which will further increase inflation and doesn’t address the main reason housing has boomed in the country in recent years. High construction costs have been at the heart of the affordable housing crisis.
Lindsay Garcia, a Redfin agent in Fort Lauderdale, Florida, pointed out that buyer hesitancy is not limited to politics.
“The findings are a sign of buyers’ uncertainty about choices,” she said, referring to another study by Veterans United Home Loans, which found that 38% of homebuyers are also putting their search on hold. But, she added, this could be a temporary blip.
“The market is cyclical. The economy will continue to improve and when we get through the election, shoppers will start to feel more confident again.”
Despite the political drama, it’s not just election worries holding back buyers.
Over 30% of respondents said they are still in savings mode, while nearly 29% believe the time just isn’t right for their families.
The rest, about 18%, are holding out for a possible interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, betting that lower rates will give them a better chance of affording a home.
Experts remain divided on whether the housing market will rebound after the election dust settles. Real estate guru Ryan Serhant is bullish, recently telling Fox Business that he expects the market to roar in 2025 as inventory rises and interest rates drop.
However, Fannie Mae Chief Economist Mark Palim remains cautious, noting that even with interest rates around 6%, sales are still slow.
“Consumers are paying attention to the easing interest rate environment, but still feel hampered by the significant increase in house prices over the past four years,” he explained in a press release. As the countdown to Election Day continues, all eyes are on Washington.
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